WINNING. BULLISH. ONWARDS.

past clients coming out of the woodwork today...

WHY IS MSTR CRASHING?????

SHOULD I SELL???????

IS THE BITCOIN BULL MARKET OVER??????

make it stop. 🤦‍♂️

Them: "But how much #bitcoin should I buy?"

Me: "How much savings do you want to have?"

Them: [with confused face] "What?"

Me: "wut?"

That giant sucking sound you hear is the world’s purchasing power flowing into the #Bitcoin network.

Anyone else having a difficult time staying caught up on relevant world events and macroeconomic data outside of X?

I am.

Moving on.

What I'm watching... 👀

A strong negative divergence is forming on the $DXY daily chart.

After it's recent (impressive) surge, a US dollar breakdown is IMMINENT... and likely to be triggered by the (dovish) words of Jerome Powell and the (dovish) actions of the FOMC later today.

Why it matters:

A breakdown of the US dollar is NET POSITIVE for risk assets, emerging markets and--you guessed it--#bitcoin.

I wouldn't be surprised if #bitcoin pushes towards $100k by the end of 2024, given the current macroeconomic setup.

Not a bold prediction, just a guess. Let's watch. 🍿

I was honored to receive the following email announcement from BarclayHedge:

"Dear Jeff Ross,

Congratulations!

We are pleased to announce that Vailshire Capital Management LLC has been featured in BarclayHedge's Monthly performance rankings. Vailshire Partners, LP has ranked number 1 in the Multi-Strategy category for September 2024."

Amazingly, this is the fourth time so far in 2024 that Vailshire Partners LP hedge fund has achieved this award:

- March 2024: #1

- May 2024: #1

- July 2024: #1

- September 2024: #1

Shout-out to #Bitcoin for being the primary driver of this performance. ⚡

Just an encouraging message to share with your #tradfi and #macro friends... Not a solicitation to invest.

UPDATE: Bullish. 🐂

Three things that are real:

1. Conference burnout

2. Podcast burnout

3. Social media burnout

I know that I’m not supposed to care, but I pity the fool who is selling his #bitcoin today based on short term FUD.

The September CPI of 2.4% is likely to be this cycle’s low.

It will almost certainly creep higher over the coming months.

T minus 60 minutes for the US CPI report (September data) 🍿

My stupid worthless non-investable short-term predictions which are not any sort of individual advice:

- The Oct. 10 US CPI will "surprise" many to the downside... "lower than expected!!"

Soon thereafter:

- The US dollar (which has recently been surging) will rollover and head lower

- Interest rates (which have recently been surging) will rollover and head lower

- VIX (which has recently spiked) will turn lower

- Risk assets will resume their uptrend

- #bitcoin will make bold moves higher... since the next leg of the bull market has officially begun (slowly at first, then exponential in 2H 2025)

- Ironically, #inflation has likely already bottomed (as partially reflected in the coming low September CPI print) and should trend slowly higher over the coming couple of quarters

Only 36.

Some I hope not to experience.

Onwards. ⚡️

#Bitcoin is the bane of the IMF’s existence.

Prediction: The IMF will rail against the growing Bitcoin network until the IMF ceases to exist.

Just checking in…

How is the #58kforever gang holding up?

Everyone and their grandmother is talking about “liquidity” now.

My work here is finished…

Just finished my quarterly (4Q 2024) memo for clients of Vailshire Partners LP hedge fund.

Note that I am limited by the regulators as to what I can share publicly (especially regarding unaudited results/returns), so I am sharing what I can in this edited copy for you.

It's a little confusing, as many numbers are XX'd for privacy.

Hopefully you will still find it useful.

Cheers!

September unemployment rate: 4.1% vs 4.2% (expected) and 4.2% (prior)

September US nonfarm payrolls: +254k vs +132.5k (expected) and +159k (prior; revised from +142k)

The Doom and Gloomers and Recessionistas are... wait for it... wrong again.

#macro

Onwards.

🐂